​Does Analytic Thinking Lead to Motivated Reasoning or Cognitive Decoupling?

(TÜBİTAK 1001, 2025–2028; PI: OY; Researcher, BD, Advisor, OI)

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This project investigates the three-stage model of analytic thinking (Pennycook et al., 2015), focusing specifically on its final stage, where analytic processing can either strengthen existing beliefs (motivated reasoning) or promote openness to alternative perspectives (cognitive decoupling). Across 10 studies in Türkiye and the United States, we aim to:

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1. Identify the conditions under which analytic thinking amplifies bias versus fosters intellectual humility and belief revision,

2. Compare methods (e.g., cognitive bias training, two-response paradigms, and timed reflection delays) to develop more effective interventions for activating analytic thought,

3. Bridge the intention–behavior gap by measuring both self-reported attitudes and real behavioral outcomes in domains such as climate change, vaccine hesitancy, and political polarization,

4. Test cultural and contextual moderators that may shift whether analytic cognition reduces polarization or entrenches it,

5. Produce practical outputs (including educational modules) to integrate evidence-based analytic thinking interventions into broader educational systems.

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By integrating this work within the Dual Inheritance framework, we explore how reflective cognition interacts with evolved threat sensitivities and culturally transmitted identity cues to either reinforce parochial commitments or promote cross-group openness. This approach not only clarifies the functional roles of analytic thought but also informs policy-relevant strategies to mitigate polarization across cultural contexts.

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Is Intuitive Cooperation Possible Under Threats of Earthquake, Terror, and Scarcity?

(TÜBİTAK 1001, 2024–2027; PI: BD, Advisors: OY & OI)

This project examines a longstanding debate: are humans intuitively inclined to cooperate, or is cooperation primarily a product of cognitive effort overriding selfish impulses? Building on the Social Heuristics Hypothesis (which proposes a natural tendency toward cooperation) and the Self-Control Hypothesis (which views intuitive responses as selfish), this project tests how threat and group identity, key contextual factors, interact with cognitive processes to shape cooperative behavior.

By systematically manipulating reflective and intuitive thinking, we explore how evolved predispositions (e.g., threat sensitivity, group favoritism) and culturally learned norms (e.g., solidarity vs. parochialism) jointly determine whether cooperation emerges under stress.

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Longitudinal Test of the Relationship Between Moral Judgments and Moral Behavior

(TÜBİTAK 3005, 2023–2025; PI: BD, Advisors: OY & OI)

Moral psychology has long relied on intentional measures (self-reports) to infer prosociality, often neglecting actual behaviors measured through experimental games. Recent findings reveal a persistent intention–behavior gap, challenging the validity of widely used frameworks such as Morality as Cooperation and Moral Foundations Theory.

This project directly compares moral judgments (intentions) with observable behaviors to identify which theoretical models best predict real-world prosociality. It also examines scarcity as a contextual moderator, testing whether resource stress amplifies evolved survival biases or activates culturally grounded cooperative norms.

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Religion and Moral Consistency Across Contexts

(Templeton Religion Trust, 2022–2024; Co-PIs: OY & OI)

This international project investigates how religious belief influences moral consistency across diverse cultural and social environments. While religion is often assumed to boost prosociality, our findings reveal a more nuanced picture: religion does not necessarily increase prosocial behavior per se, but instead strengthens the coherence of individuals’ moral attitudes across contexts.

By situating this work within the Dual Inheritance framework, we explore how religious norms (a culturally transmitted system) interact with evolved predispositions (such as group favoritism and threat sensitivity) and reflective thinking to stabilize moral commitments. This helps explain why religiously anchored moral frameworks often exhibit cross-situational stability, even in non-WEIRD contexts.

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Related publications:

Ghasemi, O., Yilmaz, O., Isler, O., Terry, J., & Ross, R. M. (2025). Reflective thinking predicts disbelief in God across 19 countries. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 32(5), 2220–2229. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-025-02691-9

​Şeker, F., Acem, E., Bayrak, F., Dogruyol, B., Isler, O., Bahçekapili, H. G., & Yilmaz, O. (2025). Cognitive reflection and religious belief: A test of two models. Judgment and Decision Making. 20, e13. doi:10.1017/jdm.2024.41​

Does Religion Make Us Better? Exploring Faith as Moral GPS

https://templetonreligiontrust.org/explore/does-religion-make-us-better-exploring-faith-as-moral-gps/

 

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How to Increase Social Cooperation Against the Threat of Earthquakes?

(TÜBİTAK 1001, 2021–2024; PI: OY, Advisor: OI)

Most studies on how disasters shape social behavior rely on correlational designs and self-reported intentions, leaving causal mechanisms unclear. This project uses eight controlled experiments to test predictions based on the Issue Ownership Model, examining whether exposure to earthquake threats strengthens ingroup solidarity, parochialism, or broader prosocial responses.

By grounding this work in the Dual Inheritance framework, we identify how threat-sensitive predispositions and culturally transmitted expectations of civic responsibility jointly influence cooperative behavior in disaster contexts.

Related publication:

Dogruyol, B., Velioglu, I., Bayrak, F., Acem, E., Isler, O. & Yilmaz, O. (2024). Validation of the moral foundations questionnaire-2 in the Turkish context: exploring its relationship with moral behavior. Current Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-024-06097-z

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How to Promote Cooperation Under Resource Scarcity? The Moderating Role of Intuitive and Analytical Thinking

(TÜBİTAK 3501, 2021–2024; PI: OY, Advisor: OI)

This project addresses the same cooperation vs. selfishness debate by introducing resource scarcity as a moderator of dual-process models. Scarcity is not just an economic factor but also an ecological cue, triggering evolved threat and survival mechanisms while activating culturally variable norms about sharing, fairness, and reciprocity.

Our first goal is to develop a reliable experimental method to induce the psychological salience of scarcity. The second is to identify the boundary conditions under which intuitive and reflective processes promote or hinder cooperation.

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How to Promote Compliance with Preventive Measures: The Effects of Self-Interested and Prosocial Messages

(TÜBİTAK 1001, 2020–2021 PI: OY, Advisor: OI)

During the COVID-19 pandemic, this project explored the social-psychological drivers of persuasion and behavioral change, testing whether people respond more strongly to self-interested appeals or prosocial, norm-based messages. We measured both intentions and actual behaviors, while tracking risk perceptions and identity-related moderators that might influence message effectiveness.
This work highlights how reflection, intuition, and cultural framing interact with contextual cues (public health threats) to shape compliance; a key case study for understanding culturally adaptive cooperation in crisis contexts.

Related publication:

Bayrak, F., Aktar, B., Aydas, B., Yilmaz, O., Alper, S., & Isler, O. (2023). Effective health communication depends on the interaction of message source and content: two experiments on adherence to COVID-19 measures in Türkiye. Psychology & Health. https://doi.org/10.1080/08870446.2023.2285445